Saturday 30 january 2010
6
30
/01
/Jan
/2010
23:00
A fiasco, a summit for nothing, a total nonsense, the height of irresponsibility, etc. A lot of very pessimistic reports have been published here and there about the conclusions of COP15. This
included not only highly committed environmentalists or alter-globalization activists, but also participants in the conference, from directly threatened poor territories to rich European
countries.
It took me more than one month to seize what happened there, as it is true that the result is, frankly speaking, very far away from the expectations initially set... But hey! we knew that gathering 193 countries and asking them to reach a unanimous agreement within 12 days on one of the most complex matters of the moment would be tough. And still, some progress was made.
Anyway, I have decided to see the glass half full rather than half empty. So let's see what occurred during the last days of the conference, and the final status.
Because of the various moves on the past days, starting from day 8 the atmosphere was becoming more and more confused, tinged with suspicion and intransigence among the parties. Draft after draft, no common position could be found. The failure of the summit was deemed possible, and getting more and more likely. Still, several countries tried hard to find an acceptable compromise, without success. Then came day 11, when 27 countries and Ban Ki-Moon decided to gather and take the discussions out of the dead lock. It took them the whole night to come up with a text in the early hours of day 12. Victory!
Well, not quite... It seems that China and India fought up with the USA, that France claims the text is empty, the rich are not considering the imminent danger threatening the poor Southern states... Then arrives Obama, and with him the last hope to save Copenhagen. But it soon turns up to be overestimated. He multiplies bilateral talks, makes leaders of poorer and even European countries angry and disappointed, aggressively pushing for more responsibility in his proposals... One last discussion with PRC's Premier, Wen Jiabao, and it's done.
Day 8 ends up at 11pm, after a speech from Obama and a series of press conferences. The final text, instead of being a binding agreement as originally expected, is a mere political declaration. Moreover, it is yet to be ratified by all UN members... which is not likely to happen because of the too low level of commitment many blame it for. The content of this 2.5 pages document, can be summarized as follows.
Most important, this document has no real legal existence, as it is neither a Treaty nor a signed Agreement. No official commitment is attached to it. It is less obvious in its name, the 'Copenhagen Accord', than in the introductory sentence to it: "The Conference of the Parties, Takes note of the Copenhagen Accord of 18 December 2009."
What are the reasons for this lower-than-expected result? Well, they are both easy and hard to identify. On the one hand, one can blame the complexity of the agreement process, as all 193 countries have to ratify it unanimously. More than that, the very different levels of climate threat are one other reason. But most likely, domestic considerations are responsible of this relative failure, not to mention the absolute lack of power of Europe to have its voice heard. Namely, the USA would not commit to reduce their emissions at the expected level, for fear this would endanger their economic leadership as a super-power. Likewise, China would not accept that an external institution controlled their effort and achievements in greenhouse gas limitations. The country would also not commit to reducing their emissions without a financial help from rich countries, which was deemed unacceptable by the USA.
Anyway, although almost everything is yet to be done, hope is still allowed. At the diplomatic level, the next step will take place in Mexico, in December 2010. Until then, it is our uppermost duty to continue working this issue around, at every possible scale - individual, household, company, government, NGO and global.
It took me more than one month to seize what happened there, as it is true that the result is, frankly speaking, very far away from the expectations initially set... But hey! we knew that gathering 193 countries and asking them to reach a unanimous agreement within 12 days on one of the most complex matters of the moment would be tough. And still, some progress was made.
Anyway, I have decided to see the glass half full rather than half empty. So let's see what occurred during the last days of the conference, and the final status.
Because of the various moves on the past days, starting from day 8 the atmosphere was becoming more and more confused, tinged with suspicion and intransigence among the parties. Draft after draft, no common position could be found. The failure of the summit was deemed possible, and getting more and more likely. Still, several countries tried hard to find an acceptable compromise, without success. Then came day 11, when 27 countries and Ban Ki-Moon decided to gather and take the discussions out of the dead lock. It took them the whole night to come up with a text in the early hours of day 12. Victory!
Well, not quite... It seems that China and India fought up with the USA, that France claims the text is empty, the rich are not considering the imminent danger threatening the poor Southern states... Then arrives Obama, and with him the last hope to save Copenhagen. But it soon turns up to be overestimated. He multiplies bilateral talks, makes leaders of poorer and even European countries angry and disappointed, aggressively pushing for more responsibility in his proposals... One last discussion with PRC's Premier, Wen Jiabao, and it's done.
Day 8 ends up at 11pm, after a speech from Obama and a series of press conferences. The final text, instead of being a binding agreement as originally expected, is a mere political declaration. Moreover, it is yet to be ratified by all UN members... which is not likely to happen because of the too low level of commitment many blame it for. The content of this 2.5 pages document, can be summarized as follows.
- The countries should cooperate to limit, in the long term, global warming to a maximum of +2°C. This objective is in line with the expectations set before the summit.
- It is agreed that an effort is necessary to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases on a global scale, based on various initiatives like promoting REDD-plus (a mechanism to prevent deforestation) or using the markets to trade emission rights. Compared to the initial goal, no more figures are mentioned to determine the level of reductions to reach, namely -50% in total and -80% for rich countries.
- The amount of subsidies for the poor countries, to help them fight reducing their emissions and adapt climate change, is set to $30 billion by 2012 and $100 billion by 2020. This objective also is in line with the expectations set before the summit.
- No other 'commitments' raised ahead of the conference are mentioned in the document. The Appendix section of the text even shows blank tables, where targets and mitigation actions should have been stated.
Most important, this document has no real legal existence, as it is neither a Treaty nor a signed Agreement. No official commitment is attached to it. It is less obvious in its name, the 'Copenhagen Accord', than in the introductory sentence to it: "The Conference of the Parties, Takes note of the Copenhagen Accord of 18 December 2009."
What are the reasons for this lower-than-expected result? Well, they are both easy and hard to identify. On the one hand, one can blame the complexity of the agreement process, as all 193 countries have to ratify it unanimously. More than that, the very different levels of climate threat are one other reason. But most likely, domestic considerations are responsible of this relative failure, not to mention the absolute lack of power of Europe to have its voice heard. Namely, the USA would not commit to reduce their emissions at the expected level, for fear this would endanger their economic leadership as a super-power. Likewise, China would not accept that an external institution controlled their effort and achievements in greenhouse gas limitations. The country would also not commit to reducing their emissions without a financial help from rich countries, which was deemed unacceptable by the USA.
Anyway, although almost everything is yet to be done, hope is still allowed. At the diplomatic level, the next step will take place in Mexico, in December 2010. Until then, it is our uppermost duty to continue working this issue around, at every possible scale - individual, household, company, government, NGO and global.
